Quarterly Analysis of Arlington County Sales in VA 
Market News--Arlington VA Real Estate, Northern Virginia & DC
Arlington County Real Estate Sales Figures
The quarterly reports are for real estate in Arlington, VA. What do they tell us? 1) real Estate is local 2) the market is humming along strongly with a lot more transactions than 2006. Generally the median sold price has been down about 7% for the county most of the year. This graph shows the orange line (2007) below the blue line (2006) almost all year.
Here are the numbers for median sold price since March compared witha a year ago: March - 0.02 %, April - 7.62 %, May - 8.23 %, June - 6.64 %, July +10.75 %. I put more faith in a block of months such as a quarter versus one month such as what happened in Arlington county in July where the numbers bumped. One should not read anything into that yet; it's way too soon. Numbers are often erratic month to month and especially within zip codes.
Real Estate Transactions in Arlington VA Increase Significantly
Even though the median sold price is down generally speaking in Arlington, VA, the market is strong. Why do I say that? Well buyers and sellers are on the same page much more so than in 2006. I say this because there have generally been about 10% more transactions per month in the county as a whole for the year. However that varies greatly depending on the zip code as does median sales price for the year. This is a great example of how local real estate is. I mean it is darn local!!! Is that emphatic enough? Look at the graph people. Those of you who listen religiously to national real estate media reports and who are always on the verge of an anxiety attack...take a chill pill. 
Those reports are mostly worthless to our market. Local, local, local, local. Local reports and trends matter. Not national media stories on sales #s. There are exceptions to this such as the subprime loan issues and jumbo loans, but traditionally most reports are on sales numbers which have nothing to do the local levels. There are markets in the country experiencing double digit increases on home values.
# of Real Estate Transactions by Zip in Arlington Virginia
Here are our numbers for Arlington County:
As you can see, there have been a lot more transactions in 2007 versus 2006. What I can't reconcile is why total units sold in my monthly market reports are lower than the quarterly report. Regardless the trend is quite significant to the point of being dramatic in some zip codes.
And as you can see most zip codes have bumped down since last year. As you can see, the Pentagon City and Crystal City areas have lost a lot of luster with a 22% decrease in home values. Other zip codes experienced price drops based on their condo markets (22201, 22203) that were correcting with a bunch of new condos that delivered in the last 18 months. Is that correction over? Maybe...maybe not. I can show buildings where the sales prices have been the same for months and months. Real estate is so local as to depend on the building one is considering. I always say it's case by case. One shouldn't generalize too much about forecasts....
{TAGS}
Date: Friday, August, 31st 2007 @ 01:00:44 PMViews: 2447
This blog entry currently has 2 comments posted.
Jay Seville
I'm looking at the Q3 report of 2007 as opposed to the Q2 report. It's interesting to note that for 22201 the average price was up 11% as opposed to down 11% seen above in Q2. 22204 was up in Q3 2% as opposed to last quarter when it was down 2%. 22206 was down 4% after being up 2% in Q2 and 22209 was waaaay up--probably some new expensive listings came on the market to distort the picture. The point is there is some steadiness in the prices. 22202 took the big hit while others have held strong.
I don't see prices changing much. I do think some average days on the market will come down in the next few months. I've learned in the past though that I'm not a prophet. And RE is very local to the building. Some buildings or quartiles gained value this year regardless of national trends. Same thing in upper manhattan--highest prices ever if I recall.
People really need to discipline themselves to ignore national stories about RE and markets. They're worthless unless you're a pundit getting paid to bloviate about the markets....
R. November
Interesting post... would you care to comment or update your views now that 3 months have passed? Granted, yes, real estate is local... but there are some national trends that seem to be weighting down the entire system. What's your prediction for the summer of 2008? Prices up/down/unchanged? And the winter six months later?