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Overpriced Condo Alert -- How to Decide How Much to Offer on an Arlington Condo in Clarendon

Posted by Jay Seville on Sunday, August 29th, 2010 at 8:58pm.

How Do You Decide How Much to Offer on an Arlington Virginia Condo

arlington_condo_clarendon_1021_384

Crunching the Numbers on a Clarendon 1021 Condo in Arlington Virginia  -- from $475,00 List Price to a $410,000 offer

 

 

Due to technical problems the video is temporarily not showing up correctly so click here to view video on how to decide how much to offer on an Arlington Virginia condo in Clarendon.

More info and changing the price on Clarendon 1021 Condo ....

I received input from the listing agent to the effect that the selling points of the unit are better than I first observed--the patio photo doesn't do it justice:

"a feature that sets this condo apart from any other in the building-the 10x12 private outdoor patio-its connection to the courtyard and gated street access for dog owners. The layout of this unit is also one of the best in the building. " 

So with 2 condos closing on the 3rd floor for $446,000 and $426,000 I'm willing to change the value from $420,000 up to $430,000 as legit.  The market will tell and indeed there may be a buyer out there who clicks with the condo that will pay up to $440,000 which would be cool for owners there.  For my own buyer I'd advise them higher than 430 isn't wise.  But one thing is for sure, when you find the right home, such as a patio that gets you to the dog park readily it isn't about winning the negotiating battle; it is about landing the home.  so what about the final $10,000 if the home is perfect and you're going to be there 4-5 years.  It's getting the right home that counts in the end.  Put the ego aside and don't lose the home when you find it. 

the nice thing is that with the best agent you can OFTEN accomplish both--the right home for 1-2% lower than its market value.  Enough said.

Transcription on the Deciding How Much to Offer on an Arlington Condo Video

How we go from a $475,000 list price to an offer of $410,000 and set a max price for ourself of $420,000. Hi I’m Jay Seville, the owner of JustNewListings.com Realty and I thought I’d do something a little different today and that is take a couple of the most recent Arlington, Virginia condo listings and sort of crunch the numbers on them.  Run the numbers, come up with hypothetically, if you are interested in buying one of these condos, what would our initial offer would be and why. So we’re going to look at two scenarios.  One is a bedroom and den in Clarendon 1021 right here.  And then the other is going to be a 2200 in Station Square.  Both of these are extremely hot condos in terms of their popularity and demand for them.  One is two blocks from the other, from the Metro.  The other is one block from the Metro.  And I get inquiries and showing requests for these all the time. So let’s work through the numbers. First we’re going to start with Clarendon 1021 right here, and see what it’s worth.  First of all, it’s a bedroom and den.  It’s listed 475,000.  It brags about a fully upgraded large master bedroom and den.  Okay, also, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, etcetera. Let’s check out photos on it and see what those do for us.  These are pretty decent quality photos.  The problem is they are completely tiny.  If you’re listening at home, why would you let your agent get away with such tiny photos for your virtual tour?  It’s sort of well, a slap on the face if you ask me. Next we’re going to go through, starting at the top, and put in 1021, we’re going to go back to let’s say, November 1, 2009.  We’re going to look at all the listings from 330,000 to about let’s see, 500,000.  We’re going to put up sold.  We’re going to put contract, under contract, and active listings here. Now I must say my first impression, a bedroom and den listed at 475,000 is, you got to be kidding me.  I used to write the series, The Most Overpriced Condos in Arlington, Virginia.  This listing would probably get put on that list and I would write a commentary on it.  I’m just busy.  I don’t do that as much anymore.  Generally, most listings are priced reasonably now.  The buyers and the sellers are on the same page. So, I got a ton of comps to work with here.  So I’m going to just scroll them.  What I really need to do is find the square footage of these.  Quickly pick out about six bedrooms and dens if possible and we use those for our endeavor. So we got the listings we’re going to keep.  And now, we’re going to go through and break them down.  All right, so we got the eight comps we want to work with.  The one we’re looking for is active, 475,000, 911 square feet.  We saw the photos on it already so it is significantly large.  Let’s check the tax record and see if it truly is 911 square feet.  Living area, 911, okay just making sure there’s not an exaggeration there. Now go to the top and let’s work backwards.  Closed price, 438,000 on the third floor, however it had a seller subsidy of 12,000.  So really the net price here was the excuse me, 426,000.  Bedroom and den 873 square feet.  And this closed in Feb, well this closed in March so it was part of the spring market in essence. So that’s telling.  It netted 426,000.  Meanwhile the listing we’re breaking down is 475,000 less price.  So far, it’s not adding up.  Then we go down, this one’s 839 square feet.  Also one with oversized one bedroom so it’s not quite the same.  It closed for a net of 377,000.  This is not the greatest comp because it doesn’t have that den-type modification to it.  So I’m going down here and I’m going to drop that one from our list and continue working down. And you have 338, now this is really interesting.  978 square feet, it closed for 490,000.  There was a seller subsidy so it’s really close to 485,000, multiple offers.  A true two-bedroom property.  These are very rare in Clarendon 1021.  If I recall, there’s only about eight of them.  So that’s interesting. The difference between a den and a real bedroom is significant.  I’m sure that this listing down here that we’re looking at, it’s going off the square footage and that’s how they came up with their list price of 475,000.  They have a point you know.  I see what they’re doing.  I see where they’re going with it.  I’m not necessarily ready to buy into though as a buyer-agent. This one here, number 732, owner occupied sale, okay.  Living area 911, they closed for 421,000.  And again, that’s about the size of the one we’re looking at.  If you go down here, 911 square feet, yeah.  Now, it’s sort of weird it has zero days on the market.  New question is was it really listed?  Was it a private sale that got put in here just a comp for agents?  It could have been that this was listed 449,000.  It might have had a four day sale for example.  So it’s not the greatest comp, it’s on the7th floor, which gives them more value yet still it only closed for 421,000.  So it sort of a funky scenario.  It would be worth contacting this agent here and saying, “What’s up with this?  What happened?  What went down there?” Then you come over here, 332.  That netted a 911 square feet, okay, now we’re talking.  Third floor, so it’s a pretty low floor.  Seller subsidy, 9,000.  So it netted 446,000.  Now this is our best comp for us so far.  It netted 446,000 and it listed 465,000, one under contract in two days. Photos are probably going to be really good because this dude for Frankly Realty and they have high-end photography all the time on their listings.  And that’s just the marquee look for the best realtors and brokerages have you know, standards.  Look at these photos.  This is what a listing is supposed to look like.  It’s staged, crisp and clear, big photos by Mike Rosen the agent.  Lots of light, wide-angle lenses, and this is through Frankly Realty.  They do a great job. I also use this type of virtual tour on all of our listings at JustNewListings.com Realty.  So this thing showed very, very well.  In fact it showed significantly better I think than the listing we’re looking at over here.  This is the active listing.  Let’s check out it’s virtual tour.  Again, going back to the small photos, dark at that.  There’s the den, master bedroom, kitchen.  Yeah, you know, it’s just, they did not list this very well.  Yet they’re asking 475,000.  It’s on the B level.  It doesn’t show nearly as well as this one on the third level that netted 446,000.  So immediately, this property is looking significantly overpriced. Usually homes are closing like 96-97% of list price.  But already you go back 30 grand and you end up here.  However this is on a higher floor, shows better.  So you need to go back some more.  Now we’re down to this one is maybe worth, instead of 446,000 maybe this oversized one is worth 430,000.  The first impression I get is we would offer like 415,000 and negotiate and try and stay under 430,000.  Really I want to make a case for really just 425,000. Let’s just see what the others tell us really quick or maybe we’re done.  So the B level here, 940 square feet, 8th floor, under contract immediately.  This one, I’m assuming was bid up.  Yes, two offers, one ratified, sent to the banks.  Was it a foreclosure?  Looks like it was a foreclosure.  Lets open up the details here, short sale.  Okay, so it’s priced significantly below value.  It doesn’t really help us much in terms of the comps. Looking at these, I would say that this new listing here listed for 475,000, it’s significantly overpriced.  It wasn’t presented well which is a shame.  And since it’s only on the B level, from my perspective, at the most it’s worth 430,000. Changed my mind…don’t pay more than $420,000 ish for it.  Seems like seller is not ready ” to do business.” And one could make the case that maybe it’s only worth 425,000.  So as a buyer-agent we would submit an offer of 415,000 for example or 400,000 flat and we would say, “Hey, look at this listing here.  It shows much better than yours.  It’s higher up and it only netted 446,000.  So you guys need to come down to reality.” I have a feeling this person was an original owner and paid significantly more.  Let’s see if we can find out in the tax record what their deal is.  Oh, deed, it’s not really showing, who owns it and what they paid for.  So I’m guessing they were the original owners who paid more for it, 500,000 or something. So there you go, that’s the process we’ve worked through in coming up with the comps.

 

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9 Responses to "Overpriced Condo Alert -- How to Decide How Much to Offer on an Arlington Condo in Clarendon"

nolatravelgirl wrote:
I think you sometimes twist the facts to fit whatever scenario you are trying to shove down others throats. You state there are only 8 "true" two bedroom in 1021. 1021 has over 400 units, I don't know the exact numbers but I would venture to say that there are atleast 150 "true" two bedroom units. Other point of note is the B unit you are comping has a walk out patio that should be considered an amenity that may make it more equitable to your non balcony/patio unit on the 3rd floor.

Posted on Monday, August 30th, 2010 at 7:06 AM.


the 2BR scenario is VERY rare in the building--there are just a handful or so. It's mostly 1BR+den or 2/2. Not sure why. I'm sure it has something to do with which scenarios get the highest demand of buyers and $$$ and research has been done it so that's why builders go that route. In general in these cookie cutter condominiums on the orange line for new buildings fro 2003+ there are almost no 2BR 1BA units.

Your point is on the increased value of the patio is good and legit. I know to me that outdoor space has value because I'm in dire need of sunshine all the time :) But I've found that demand is pretty low from viewing units with 100s of people over the years thinking they would be excited about the big patios on the ground floor of many buildings and it was almost never the case.

I don't think it could appraise higher than 430ish.

When I used to write the overpriced condo series I went back and checked and 24 out of 25 I got correct.

Posted on Monday, August 30th, 2010 at 7:17 AM.


I hope you're right though. It would be nice for homeowners there and past clients of mine in the 1021 building. Also keep in mind the peak of the 2010 cycle is over...prices generally go down in the late summer and fall till the next spring market. Not to mention this year's spring market had some astroturf to it--$8000 credit to buyers that did impact home prices.

Posted on Monday, August 30th, 2010 at 7:23 AM.


nolatravelgirl wrote:
Once again you are twisting facts, a 2/2 is a "true" two bedroom, so hence your statement that there are only 8 "true" twos is false and misleading. Yes, there are people who list 1+den as a 2 and that is a problem, but that usually is because the listing services are not set up to recognize a +den other than listing it in the description. I realize you are a buyer's agent, but frankly you are predatory and you are great at sucking the realtor fees helping people buy, but do you also realize what you are doing to the overall market with your comments about this area. Your clients who buy in this area are being sandbagged by you and will never be able to sell, because all you talk about is low balling everyone, heck no one is ever going to be able to sell and even break even because of your constant rambling chatter. Maybe you can put the whole building into foreclosure with your insane pricing "strategies"

Posted on Monday, August 30th, 2010 at 7:40 AM.


nolatravelgirl, my comment on 8 2BRs was specifically pertaining to the 2BR 1BA scenario. Of course there are a ton of 2/2s in the building. The 2BR 1BA scenario is rare.

And I think it is great to advertise 1BR+dens as 2BR 1BA units with a quick note in the remarks it is a BR+den. Because for many people the den is good enough to be a BR. I think it is fine ethically listing them as 2BRs as well. So we're on the same page there.

As far as how I treat sellers. Well here is the virtual tours I provide to them http://www.homevisit.com/tour/mristour.asp?id=33942
or this 1BR+den http://www.homevisit.com/tour/mrisTour.asp?id=29309

Here's what you need to understand, nolatravelgirl, I am SO UNIMPORTANT to the marketplace and home values except for my specific clients which are a drop in the bucket in the overall marketplace. You attribute a lot more influence to me that is really the case. I am nothing. The market is its own monster and except for 8000 tax credits hard for anybody to impact directly. That is the bottom line.

If you look at posts the past 2 months on the Arlington market you'll find it very positive to homeowners. This listing represents one out of many on the market most of which I would find quite reasonably priced for standard negotiating. It's not my fault this home is priced more extremely than the other homes on the market. If it is worth in the 340 in the marketplace that would be cool. It would be a new base from which to assess future listing values for sure.

Time will tell so we'll see.

My job on the buyer side is to protect people. The listing agent's job is to puff up the price.

Here's one thing that is for sure. The listing agent is not bringing buyers to the table and that is why the listing agents pay the buyer agents commissions---usually the greater part of the commission goes to the buyer agent for that reason. So maybe it is not the buyer's agents who are sucking up realtor fees; it is the listing agents who don't bring the buyers to the table to ratify contracts. Rare exceptions of course.

I am not lowering the values in the market at all save for 1 on 1 negotiating when I have a buyer or seller I'm representing. I represent being a consumer advocate who takes his job sincerely whether representing buyers or seller.

"constant rambling chatter" Well at least the great majority has been positive no? the last time I wrote an overpriced condo series was 2 years ago.

Posted on Monday, August 30th, 2010 at 8:35 AM.


MICHAEL K. BOSLEY wrote:
Jay,

Just came across your web site and I am reading your blogs. VERY INTERESTING.....

Just a note to say I agree with your comments and I like the way you protect your clients. A lot of your comments surely shows why buyers should be represented. I have opened some great Buildings in North Arlington and again I feel your comments are very Professional!

THE CONDO KING......

Posted on Wednesday, September 8th, 2010 at 10:03 AM.


Thanks for that, Michael. It's always a surprise to find other realtors and brokers reading my blog. Appreciate your observations.

The listing agent did call me to clarify that her unit has a 10x12 patio which is much larger than the small photos denote. And that is consquential. So I'm going to add headline text to the blog piece of her input and add new observation on my perceived value of the condo--hopefully today.

Posted on Wednesday, September 8th, 2010 at 10:22 AM.


Lee wrote:
Interesting Blog. Wouldn't buyers be better off focusing on prices in terms of $$ per sq. ft. instead of the total price? From an economic standpoint it's a better measure for comparison purposes.

Posted on Wednesday, September 8th, 2010 at 10:32 AM.


Great comment, Lee. You must be an engineer. :) $$/sq ft is a great tool--especially at the macro level of looking at areas, regions zip codes. But for individual properties with nuances such as direction they are facing, floor, amount of light, floor plan, etc. the $$ / sq ft method is not too effective at hammering out the market value.

Posted on Wednesday, September 8th, 2010 at 10:37 AM.




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