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MAP

Select a Starting Point: No Preference Accokeek Aldie Alexandria Annandale Annapolis Arlington Arnold Ashburn Baileys Crossroads Bealeton Beltsville Bethesda Bluemont Bowie Boyds Bristow Brookeville Burke Burtonsville Calverton Catharpin Catlett Centreville Chantilly Chevy Chase Clarksburg Clifton Clinton College Park Crofton Crownsville Damascus Davidsonville Derwood Dumfries Edgewater Fairfax Falls Church Falmouth Frederick Fredericksburg Gainesville Gaithersburg Glenn Dale Goldvein Great Falls Greenbelt Hamilton Hanover Haymarket Herndon Hyattsville Kensington Lanham Laurel Leesburg Lovettsville Manassas Manassas Park Marshall Mclean Middleburg Millersville Mineral Nokesville North Potomac Oakton Occoquan Odenton Oldtown Olney Pasadena Poolesville Purcellville Remington Reston Rockville Round Hill Severn Severna Park Shady Side Silver Spring Spotsylvania Springfield Stafford Sterling Stone Ridge Suitland Takoma Park The Plains Triangle University Park Upper Marlboro Vienna Warrenton Washington Winchester Woodbridge Choose a property type: All Property Types Detached Homes Condominiums Townhouse Multi-family Land Commercial

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You Got Punk'd by the Media -- Arlington Real Estate Market Stats

Media Predicts 25% Decrease in Arlington Virginia Home Values?

Once in awhile I get so frustrated about the lack of either forthrightness, common sense or expertise demonstrated by various real estate media sources both locally and nationally.  A classic example recently came out in this article in BusinessWeek titled Housing Meltdown.

    It stated that housing prices would come down 25% with some of their sources claiming up to 40%.  Nowhere in the article is any strong point for how hyperlocal real estate is including Arlington real estate for sale.  Such stories are in essence fear mongering & hype when no disclaimers or explanations are given for how the story has almost nothing to do with any particular reader's local real estate market.   That's my grind with the real estate media hypesters--a totally irresponsible portrayal of data without clarifying how "unlocal" their info and forecasts are to any particular reader.

For those of you who don't want the whole story here's the bottom line on the real estate market in Arlington Virginia.

Average sold price for 2007 versus 2006 for Arlington county real estate was +1.45% and # of units sold was flat (+0.26%).  This is hardly the precipitous market place portrayed by BusinessWeek hypesters and the "experts" they interviewed.    In fact these are the kind of stories that have been reported for the past 2 years.  Except for quick correction in condos over a year ago things have been fairly stable here price wise.  You want to know who your experts really are in today's world on your local marketplace?  I'll tell you who--your local Arlington real estate bloggers.  There are several of us and the same goes for almost any city where there are real estate 2.0 practitioners.  Why?  Because to write with any substance the real estate consultant--I don't use the word "realtor" anymore for various reasons--must study the markets a lot and they tend to have their pulse on the marketplace compared to regular realtors or media types.  And real estate bloggers also tend to be passionate about transparency meaning if I don't know about the market I'll say "I don't know."  So you get to avoid a lot "fluff"--fluff being a euphimism. 

Extreme Real Estate Quotes from BusinessWeek

BusinessWeek Article 

"And that could be just the start. Brace yourself: Home prices could sink an additional 25% over the next two or three years, returning values to their 2000 levels in inflation-adjusted terms. That's even with the Federal Reserve's half-percentage-point rate cut on Jan. 30"

"While a 25% decline is unprecedented in modern times, some economists are beginning to talk about it. "We now see potential for another 25% to 30% downside over the next two years," says David A. Rosenberg, North American economist for Merrill Lynch (MER), who until recently had expected a much smaller slide."

"Pessimists aren't impressed. One of the first high-profile bears on housing, Ian Shepherdson of consulting firm High Frequency Economics, is looking for a 20% decline in prices from their peak but says 40% wouldn't shock him. "We've never been here before, so there's no road map," he says."

More Perspective on the Arlington County Market &  Clarendon Real Estate

 For Clarendon (22201) the median sales price has been +2, +6, -7% the past 3 months of Dec 2007, Jan 2008 and Feb 2008.  That is pretty standard in terms of monthly fluctuations.  One really can't tell much from looking at month to month #s because by chance a few expensive units could sell such a $900,000 2BR at the Mercer & Wooster Lofts that distort the more common sales prices in a zip code.  One thing that stands out is that there seems to be more inventory with 941 active listings in Feb 2008 for Arlington VA (entire county)  versus 722 active listings in Feb 2007. 

Conclusions to Clarendon Real Estate Reports & Market Data in General

• take media stories with a grain of salt...seriously
• national media stories are almost completely irrelvant to your situation
• what's happening market data wise depends on the type of home you are interested, its zip code and or its building among many other factors
• find the home you want and then analyze its niche market data to buy the home for a fair or below market price if you have extra time (can take several contracts)
• hire a real estate consultant who knows what the heck they're doing

UPDATE TO VIRGINIA AND ARLINGTON MARKET 2/10/2009

So for the entire state of Virginia the median sold price was down 1% from previous year.  Compare that to the 25-40% prophecies that were made with no mention of how hyperlocal real estate is.  The reality is that prices are stable in some place and very fluid in others.  And there is no doubt the values did correct in the 2006-2007 frame.  But rememer that BusinessWeek article was just March 2008--and all we had was a 1% decrease for the state.   

How About Arlington Virginia homes prices?

  So condos seem to have come down about 3% in Arlington as a whole in the last year.    And for single family houses?

  Hardly a bust. 

 I do want to say the official end of year report for the region should be out shortly and we will see the true median SOLD PRICE for northern virginia real estate data.  The altos charts are not sold prices.  When I look at the median sold prices for past 4 months in Arlington I am seeing a -5 or -6%.  So I am thinking the prices came down in the end about 5% in Arlington.  Let's wait and see before making fools of ourselves.  However since real estate is hyperlocal it will vary greatly by zip code even.  I bet in the 22204 zip code the median price is perhaps 15% lower than previous year.

This is median list price of single family homes for 22204--about -5% from year ago.  And here for for 22204 condos
  that's 20%.  HYPERLOCAL ARLINGTON REAL ESTATE!  And now in 22201--clarendon condos a decline of 7% with some upward trending.   Big difference in the 22204 and 22201 markets which is why such BusinessWeek articles bother me.

and here is single family houses in 22205 versus 22207-- the whole north arlington highly sought after suburb thing:

Again when you are ready to buy my JustNewListings.com team will analyze on a case by case basis to protect you financially.  You can see from the overpriced condo series how I think.

13 Responses to "You Got Punk'd by the Media -- Arlington Real Estate Market Stats"

Brian Block wrote:
Jay, very good points. I made these same points in my recent blog article: Roller Coaster of Real Estate: Northern Virginia Home Prices are NOT in Freefall (except maybe in Prince William County).

It's important to get the truth out there.

Posted on Sunday, March 16th, 2008 at 2:47 PM.

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Jay Seville

Looks like we think alike, Brian. Same subject posted on same day--haha. What's interesting in looking at your article is the #s for 22202. In other quarterly reports the sales price comparing 22202 to previous quarters was way down (-20%) versus a year ago. Looks like in the 4th quarter 22202 got back on track and recovered some lost value.

One just has to be very careful about any generalizations...the month to month or quarter to quarter data can vary significantly up or down when really in terms of the entire year not much change has occurred.

Any real estate transaction is a case by case analysis from the beginning.

Here's Brian's article on the subject, but please work with me instead--haha:
http://blog.brianblock.com/public/item/199640

I'm going to go put my racket in the car right now, Brian, so next time I drive by Tennis Factory I can have it strung and then we'll hit in the next month hopefully. I'd like a warm up with my ball machine first, bro.

jay

Posted on Sunday, March 16th, 2008 at 2:57 PM.

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Ted wrote:
Update: Oops! Looks like Arlington isnt immune to the bust afterall! 2008 2007 % Change Total Sold Dollar Volume: $ 109,903,187 $ 176,287,481 - 37.66 % Average Sold Price: $ 508,811 $ 572,362 - 11.10 % Median Sold Price: $ 426,500 $ 499,500 - 14.61 % Total Units Sold: 216 308 - 29.87 % Average Days on Market: 63 56 12.50 % Average List Price for Solds: $ 535,926 $ 595,522 - 10.01 % Avg Sale Price as a percentage of Avg List Price: 94.94 % 96.11 %

Posted on Wednesday, July 16th, 2008 at 2:48 PM.

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Jay Seville

Ted, thank for the info, but there a few items to mention: 1) you stated "Oops! Looks like Arlington isnt immune to the bust afterall!" Where did you find anybody saying that, much less myself, that Arlington is immune to market forces? I challenge you to find it on this blog. The way you seem to imply as much is not accurate so please be more careful when you post. 2) this article was from 5 months ago. A new posting on the Arlington market would definitely be in order because prices have come down. I'm just too megabusy to write the article. But in the last few months Arlington has been about 10-15% lower in median sold prices.... This goes along very well with what I predicted 5 months ago above in this very article: *********************************************** This 30% increase in the # of listings tells me that some of the county wide price averages will have to come down. ****************************************** so as you and everybody can see I read the pulse of the marketplace far in advance. In fact I highlighted that above originally. Hopefully I'll have time to write and graph about this sometime soon.... Tedster, if you can write in a manner that is not cheerleading for a decline of home values I'd be glad to consider having you as a guest writer on this topic. Go back and look at the past 3 months and maybe break it down by zip code as well and give me an article to post. We want truth and objectivity here. But if you're the type who is a loser wanting other people's home values to decline then get outta here. I'll assume you're not that kind of wacko--plenty of them out there though. J

Posted on Wednesday, July 16th, 2008 at 3:12 PM.

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avnish wrote:
hi,guys I think about it I'm just too megabusy to write the article.The Heart Is Deceitful Above All Things, and Harold's End--and became famous for his refusal to be photographed without a big blond wig and sunglasses. He was publicly wooed by celebrities including Ryder and Courtney Love, turning himself into a piece of revenue-generating cool.I do this for a living, and there's a standard-issue approach to it. It's usually brief, it doesn't get too chummy. Rocky Addiction Recovery Washington

Posted on Saturday, July 26th, 2008 at 6:08 AM.

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James wrote:
Jay

I think that condos in the Arlington area are extremely over-priced for their value. I've rented a few and also in the apartments in the area and these condos are all alike from layouts to floor plans. The area though nice, did not appreciate that fast and knowing the managers of a few of these buildings that sold units, many were flippers that should have never gotten loans. Take a look at Clarendon 1021, 1 BR condos were going for the mid $400,000s during the boom and now you are seeing sellers trying to sell them for the mid $350,000, while foreclosures for that building are popping up in the high 200's. Now that reality is setting in and the days of easy money are over (meaning giving loans to anyone that was breathing), we are going to have things 're-adjust' to levels where people who have the money to spend are going to dictate what they are going to spend, not what the builders or real estate agents or buyers 'think' their house is worth, but what it really 'IS WORTH' via real appraisers (not facade or bogus ones from the bank approved appraisers), and what someone is willing to spend.

Let's be realistic here...this area along with every other one in the US was built up by false demand and by giving people loans who should have never qualified. If the checks and balances were kept in place, the demand would just not have ever been there...there is a reason 4 of the last condos in the area went rental (The View, and the 2 others over at Courthouse) along with others in the area, there was no real demand like that was played up.

If you want to know what the value of the real estate is in the area and what you should be paying, then heed the advice of the economists that called this....go back to 2000 before the housing line left the inflation line (when those 2 are side by side and close, you have a realistic value)..wherever that was, adjust it for normal inflation over those years to now and you'll see what housing should be valued at and we're a LONG way from bottom yet for this area, especially condos. BTW...watch the videos from Peter Schiff, he tells it how it is...and the guy is spot on.

BTW your comment to Ted is unwarranted. There are people like myself and hundreds of thousands of others, young adults to old people who were fiscally responsible during the last 9 years. We didn't spend or live beyond or means and we didn't over-spend or get caught up in the facade that the media, real estate, mortgage and bankers created. If you don't buy now you'll never get in. You house will appreciate 10% every year. The stupidity of those comments is astounding.

There are many of us that want to buy, but we're just not going to pay prices that are just unrealistic for the properties around Arlington and NOVA. I'm sorry but a box condo isn't worth $300K and a fixer upper for a 1940s army home isn't worth 400K+. We are finally starting to hear people say 'they paid that for that house or condo...what's wrong with them?!?' ANYONE who earns their money the hard way and has to put it in is going to get value for their money. Those that never earned it, are the ones who caused this disaster. If sitting there and saying 'Hey, we want prices to come down to realistic levels of what something should be worth (even though real estate is local, you wouldn't still overspend for something that is broken down, small in size, etc), and if that makes us a 'loser', I find that pretty amusing.

If you want this financial disaster to end, any economist with an ounce of common sense will tell you that we have to have housing bottom out (not prop it up with more money for over valued assets) before we can start to see housing stabilize.

Keep up the good articles.

Posted on Monday, February 9th, 2009 at 10:05 PM.

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Jay Seville

James, thanks for the long post. Please keep reading and commenting on the blog. That article was from March 16, 2008. The main point of the post was that it is irresponsible for media to make blanket statements about real estate without pointing out to the readers that real estate is always hyperlocal and therefore these big predictions of 40% decreases to follow should be not taken as authoritative to one's local marketplace. Can anybody argue against that?

I noted that prices had held strong in Arlington but that there was a swelling of inventory and therefore prices could come down but that it was too early to tell about the values of Arlington Virginia homes for sale. So the year passed and what happened?

Well the median sold price for Virginia real estate statewide was -1% for the year of 2008 versus 2007. But wait, the home values were supposed to go down 25-40% period! That's what those scary pictures told me dammit! :) [see new graph/data chart above comments]. However there were corrections in Northern Virginia further out than Arlington but that was expected....But what about Arlington? Let me get the latest info and continue from there.

Posted on Tuesday, February 10th, 2009 at 9:44 AM.

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James wrote:
Thanks for the response.

Yes it would be nice to see the Arlington data. A few things I find amusing from the Washington Post is that they leave out condos, foreclosures and other things in their surveys (they seemed biased and incomplete or swayed in a direction on purpose). A few things I notice driving around the area...

There are MANY for sale signs not only in the high price Clarendon area, Ballston, etc, but also foreclosure listings on the sights. For an area that is supposed to be better equipped to deal with a downturn, that shouldn't be the case in the #'s being seen. Secondly, I am seeing people with bigger properties putting up 'Land for Sale'....it seems a lot of people are strapped for cash that they are willing to split their property up.

Lastly, whats the deal with the Cherrydale nightmare that lines Lee highway. The Brompton town homes that went up in Courthouse, Cherrydale, etc are part of the reason real estate took a huge jump in value. I believe Arlington is one of the bubbles honestly (just like DC) but I believe we are slightly behind the other areas in time for it happening (prob 6 months to 1 year). Layoffs are starting to hit this area now and I think we are about to hit the rough water in Arlington and DC (I have 2 good friends that just over the last month (Jan) were let go and many other businesses that we work with are cutting down costs, which is leading to more things like salary reductions, job losses, etc).

Condos are the first sign of a devaluation and we're seeing that across DC and Arlington. Lastly, the rents in the area need to come down also or that is going to be the next issue. My building (Bennett Park) is barely filled at all and it's been open a year and they cannot fill it because of their prices. People are strapped.

Posted on Tuesday, February 10th, 2009 at 4:18 PM.

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Jay Seville

I forgot to mention--scroll down in the article--I added this afternoon a lot of market data and charts of various niches as examples.

Posted on Tuesday, February 10th, 2009 at 4:23 PM.

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James wrote:
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV $295,100 -26.2%

http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/12/real_estate/Latest_median_prices/index.htm?postversion=2009021213

Latest Data from NAR

Posted on Thursday, February 12th, 2009 at 1:55 PM.

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Jay Seville

That's exactly the over generalization that I despise, James. Some niches went up several percent. Others plummeted 35%. To throw those large regional numbers around is quite misleading to consumers. Imagine thinking that Prince George County and West Virginia have the same real estate markets as Old Town or BAllston. So that doesn't seem cool of NAR to not have broken stats down into smaller areas.

j

Posted on Thursday, February 12th, 2009 at 2:16 PM.

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You Got Punk'd by the Media — Arlington Real Estate Market Stats « Arlington Va Real Estate wrote:
[...]Ther­e ar­e dif­f­er­en­t r­eal es­tate tr­en­ds­ look­in­g­ at quar­ter­ly­ r­epor­ts­ f­or­ dif­f­er­en­t Ar­lin­g­ton­ Vir­g­in­ia zip codes­. An­d within­ thos­e zip codes­ the tr­en­ds­ an­d data ar­e dif­f­er­en­t depen­den­t on­ the ty­pe of­ r­eal es­tate : con­do, s­in­g­le f­am­ily­ …
See th­e o­­r­igina­l po­­st h­er­e:
Y­o­u Go­t P­unk­'d­ by­ th­e M­ed­ia­ &#...[...]

Posted on Sunday, February 15th, 2009 at 10:16 PM.

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Brandon wrote:
I agree with Jay--regional numbers are worthless in the DC area. You really need to break it down by neighborhood and, in some instances, block.

Posted on Friday, June 19th, 2009 at 8:19 PM.

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